Hydro Spin (updated)

In just a couple of days, the Hydro story has gone through several early spin cycles. In the Telegram's initial story, DW was focused on gloating about his great achievement. "Newfoundland and Labrador is now taking a bite out of the Big Apple," Williams said.

The Lower Churchill was in the back seat, with the Tely story offering a follow-up statement: "He also said the agreement may also put the province in a better position to develop the Lower Churchill." See http://thetelegram.com/index.cfm?sid=238932&sc=79

By contrast, by the time of the CBC's story, the focus had shifted: "Power transfer through Quebec good for Lower Churchill 'leverage': Williams." According to the CBC: "Williams said the deal — which allows Newfoundland and Labrador to export as much as 250 megawatts of power in the summer months, when domestic demand drops but U.S. demand is surging — sets up the Lower Churchill megaproject, which is still in the planning stages." See http://www.cbc.ca/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2009/04/03/williams-lower-churchill.html

The difference between the two stories may be the result of different reporters' interpretations or different information they obtained. For good measure, the CBC story ends with the Lower Churchill, too: "The Lower Churchill is far from a certainty. The province will require federal government involvement for structuring the financing, and it requires regulatory approval."

The Tely's story dealt with the issue via an interview with Danny Dumaresque. "He told The Telegram there is 'absolutely nothing new' in this agreement. 'It doesn't bring us one inch closer to a Lower Churchill project because it doesn't give us the essential ingredient which is the right to build a transmission line across Quebec, he said. Dumaresque also said there's no space on Quebec's grid to move the projected 3,000 megawatts from the Lower Churchill."

While Geoff Meeker has analyzed the spins taking place in the media coverage, Bond Papers has reported developments in the availability of government information. Whereas the media coverage has been highly fluid and, in some cases, erratic, the provincial state has been busy redacting pubicly available material:
http://thetelegram.com/index.cfm?sid=239030&sc=88
http://bondpapers.blogspot.com/2009/04/wheeling-deal.html

We'll see what the Tely has to say today, but three unanswered questions come to mind:

1) Where is the Romaine River project in all this? Even in normal times, the amount of available capital for massive hydro projects is finite; during a global recession, access to capital is significantly constricted. It's hard to imagine how the Romaine and Lower Churchill projects can be separated: the development of one will surely affect the other.

2) Where is the federal government in all this? No doubt DW wants this story to unfold in a provincial vacuum -- Ottawa, what Ottawa? -- with the theme of self-reliance eclipsing any disucssion of what role the Harper regime is willing to play in raising capital or supporting regulatory approval.

3) How do the alternate transmission routes fit into this? If DW is now emphasizing how he has leveraged a deal to show the viability of transmitting future Lower Churchill power to the bitten Big Apple, does this mean that the NALCO-Gros Morne transmission line is a red herring?

It looks like there will be quite a few red herrings swimming around this story, so it's useful to keep in mind the etymology of red herring, which originally referred to smoked herring dragged across the trail of the fox (Hydro) to throw the hounds (public) off the scent:http://www.fallacyfiles.org/redherrf.html


Power Play Update:
Check out this interview with DW:
http://watch.ctv.ca/news/power-play/thursday-april-2#clip157120

As others have already reported, DW is clear that there is no deal with Quebec. What's less clear is how the "all options" on the table approach is going to work if actual construction ever starts on the transmission lines.

What's abundantly clear is that it remains metaphysically impossible to discuss Churchill Falls (Upper or Lower) without dragging in the entire kitchen sink of nationalist blather, from über-optimism to Harper to separatism and, curiously, back to George Baker. DW tries to declare that he's over Harper, who is now an official untermensch (DW says, with a straight face, that he doesn't have time for enemies), and he calls Curious George a great guy who doesn't really mean what he says (now how would be know that?).

As I've said before, the road to Newfoundland nationalism runs straight through Churchill Falls. To quote its namesake, "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

DW's Excellent European Adventure

Not content with spilling ink in the national media, Dangovt wants to take its special-effects show overseas. Offal News was one of the very few commentators to link to the media story:
http://www.calgaryherald.com/Business/Canada+trade+talks+despite+opposition/1320863/story.html

And Labradore picked up on some curious semantics:
http://labradore.blogspot.com/2009/02/pater-familias.html

So let's parse DW's Europrattle:

Executive Council February 20, 2009

NL Expressed Concern with Canada – EU Trade Negotiation Process

While Newfoundland and Labrador fully supports improved trade with the European Union, any actions taken [by whom?] in that regard must address priority areas of concern for the province said the Honourable Danny Williams, Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador.

[It appears that Harpoid has now descended into a Dan-te-style ring of hell where he is now he who shall not be named.]

In particular, the province is extremely hesitant to allow the Federal Government to head these negotiations, given past actions that question their commitment to issues of importance to the province.

[Dangovt has, evidently, usurped the right of the federal government to enter international negotiations.]

"At this point, we are not willing to sign on to support the negotiation of a new and comprehensive economic agreement with the European Union," said Premier Williams. "This decision should not be confused with a lack of support for an improved trade relationship between Canada and Europe. Indeed, Newfoundland and Labrador values and respects its trade relations with Europe which have existed with the province for over 5 centuries and does not wish to jeopardize those relations. From traditional relationships within the fishing industry to our newer partnerships with EU companies in the oil and gas industry and beyond, we appreciate the value of developing mutually beneficial policies with the EU."

[I guess DW's legal dictionary has no entry for non sequitur. Between the first and second sentences, and again between the second and third, DW falls off the logic wagon.

In the first instance, saying that he opposes negotiations for new economic agreements does, in fact, indicate that DW does not support improved trade between Canada and Europe. Since any improved trade between Canada and Europe will, by logical necessity, entail negotiation between the federal government and the governments of Europe, DW's stated opposition to such negotiations is, ipso facto, opposition to improved trade. In the second instance, DW conflates, as he is wont to do, Canada and NL. NL's economy comprises about 2% of Canada's GDP; DW says that he supports Canada-EU trade; ergo, he supports the 98% of the Canadian economy outside NL that sustains that trade.]

The province has centuries-old trading relationships with the EU and is positioned geographically as a natural trading partner to the EU. However, other concerns [other than what?] prevent the province from giving unqualified support [what about qualified support?] for the Canadian Government’s process [nonsensical: policies and processes are not the same thing] as it moves forward on the basis of a joint Canada-EU scoping document [presumably involving a shaft] which describes the opportunities for enhanced trade and investment between the European Union and Canada [another apparent conflation of NL and Canada] and identifies numerous potential areas of discussions for a possible deepened economic agreement.

"The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador is unable to support this at this [what, exactly?] time on the basis of very [DW's favourite vapid modifier] genuine concerns that our province’s issues [which ones?] may not be safeguarded or dealt with in an appropriate way by the Federal Government," added Premier Williams. "In particular, long standing issues such as custodial management of our [whose?] fishery, a proposed ban on seal products into the EU and prohibitive tariffs on seafood products entering the EU represent significant issues of concern that have been left unaddressed by the Federal Government for far too long. Newfoundland and Labrador has not received any assurances that a [as yet non-existent] Canada-EU agreement would include protection for measures such as the Atlantic Accords and Fish Inspection Act. Additionally, a track record of a lack of substantive and inclusive consultation on federal-provincial issues gives Newfoundland and Labrador great cause for concern, particularly in light of the far reaching implications of a possible Canada-EU trade agreement."

Premier Williams said he will continue to monitor the progress of this process [by boycotting the process?] and government officials will continue to provide full representation on issues of importance to his province [by boycotting the process].

[Aside from the turgid syntax and lousy grammar, the red sections comprise ignoratio elenchi, aka red herrings, which seem to be the favourite snack on the Eighth Floor. Either that, or DW figures that having so much surplus herring on hand will give him a strong bargaining position with the fish-hungry Europeans.]

For a description of this seafood delicacy, see http://www.fallacyfiles.org/redherrf.html

Finally, it's fascinating to learn how much Dangovt can accomplish by boycotting things. Perhaps their next step will be to boycott governing altogether.


The Excellent Adventure Continues Update:

Today's (March 7th) Tely has an updated story on DW's foreign policy. It's not available on their web site, but the front-page has the first section:
http://thetelegram.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx


Prof Puzzled Update:
http://www.thetelegram.com/index.cfm?sid=230092&sc=79

Guess no one else at MUN would talk.

The Next Battle

As the Glib is reporting, there appears to be a new front opening up in Danwar:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090211.wrivers11/BNStory/National/home

The local media have been slow to pick up the story. I suspect that Bond Papers and especially Labradore will weigh in soon with the facts. But for Dangovt -- which, in a strange inversion of Clausewitz, sees politics as war by other means -- the facts won't matter as much as the politics.

So let's consider the politics. According to the Glib:

1) "Simply by participating in the joint Quebec-Ottawa environmental assessment panel, the federal government appears to have given tacit approval to Quebec's claim."

2) ..."a constitutional battle may be in the making if Ottawa doesn't act soon to support Newfoundland and Labrador's claim to the land."

3) "A spokesperson for Mr. Williams said yesterday the Premier refuses to say whether he will act to stop Premier Jean Charest from proceeding with the Romaine River hydroelectric project."

Though the first two assertions have to be substantiated, we can take the third as a fact, at least for now. While DW has been on a national media binge, he is refusing to say anything publicly. It's not like Dangovt to keep its powder dry, but DW may have little choice in the short-term.

Let's look at Dangovt's political options:

1) Appeal directly to Harpoid

2) Use cabinet representation [Mackay] within Tory caucus

3) Use MP's to lobby Feds

4) Appeal to Charest

5) Appeal to Ig

6) Wild card

The first three are so dead on arrival that the bodies are blue.

The fourth is at least possibe, but it's hard to see how it would work, since there is little incentive for Charest to negotiate at this stage. DW's letter to the NP implicitly called Charest a coward for failing to join DW's anti-Harpoid campaign. Hard to see what Charest, who has to cover his own nationalist flank, would gain for risking a Duffy-style rendezvous.

The fifth is also possible, but I doubt whether Ig would waste political capital on something that's a vote-loser in Quebec. And as the lastest Danfit illustrated, DW has Ig's Liberal MP's on the speed-dial.

This leaves only the Wild Cards, which could run from some sort of legal challenge to a mass mobilization of Wingnut Nation. The upside of rallying the wingnuts is that it would provide a useful distraction from Dangovts failings, from Prezgate to Harpoid's cash grab, and it would provide yet another rallying cry for the upcoming April Fools Party.

The trouble is not only that the wingnut option might not work; it could also spin out of DW's control. For two generations, the road to Newfoundland nationalism has run through Labrador's hydroelectric resources, and stirring up the boundary dispute would stoke populist sentiments that could spin out of control. It's one thing to pit the province against the feds, something all premiers do from time to time (though it's usually more extreme in NL than the rest of English Canada); it's quite another thing to pit Newfoundland nationalists against Quebec nationalists.

But if past patterns are any indication, DW will pick the wild card and squeeze it for all its worth. The amount of national media coverage DW has attacted over the past month has been remarkable (including a NP editorial yesterday), but it's not sustainable, especially given an economy in free-fall. And whipping Wingnut Nation into another frenzy will backfire if DW cannot deliver. If he mounts another Danwar on this front and it doesn't work, the end-game won't be pretty for anyone. It's no accident, I suspect, that DW has started musing so publicly about separatism.